SOP 42: Search Console vs. Ahrefs — Sizing Organic Risk

SOP 42: Search Console vs. Ahrefs — Sizing Organic Risk

Both measure organic. They answer different questions. Use the right one or misjudge the deal.

— Use Google Search Console (GSC) for ground truth on current clicks, impressions, and which queries actually convert to visits. It is the seller's own Google data — request 16 months of export.
— Use Ahrefs/Semrush for what GSC hides: keyword position history, traffic-value trend, and whether rankings are climbing or decaying over 24 months.
— Decision rule: GSC confirms the asset earns today; Ahrefs confirms it will earn tomorrow.
— Cross-check trap: if Ahrefs shows estimated traffic 2x above GSC clicks, that is normal (Ahrefs over-estimates). If GSC is higher than Ahrefs estimate, the site has hidden brand/direct-search strength — a bonus.

Pass criterion: GSC click trend flat-or-up over trailing 6 months AND Ahrefs position history shows no single-keyword dependency above 30%.

Save this — run it every deal.