A ccTLD-to-subfolder consolidation, measured

A ccTLD-to-subfolder consolidation, measured

Hypothesis: five separate ccTLDs (.de, .fr, .it, .es, .nl) were fragmenting link equity that a subfolder structure under one .com would pool. Methodology: real migration, ~6,000 URLs per market, 301-mapped 1:1, hreflang preserved across the move, 6 months of monitoring. We treated the largest ccTLD (.de) as the bellwether.

What the data suggests:
— Aggregate referring domains, once pooled, didn't magically transfer authority overnight. For the first 7 weeks all five markets dipped 8–19% in clicks — the expected migration trough.
— By month 4, the consolidated .com/de/ recovered to 106% of the old .de baseline; the smaller markets (.nl, .es) overshot to 120–130%, consistent with them benefiting most from the shared domain authority.
— Net across all five: +14% organic clicks at month 6.

Caveats and unknowns: ccTLDs carry an implicit geotargeting signal you forfeit on a subfolder, so we set explicit GSC international targeting per folder. We can't isolate how much of the +14% was that vs. pooled equity. A property with strong individual-ccTLD brand recognition might lose more than it gains; this one didn't, but n=1.

Conclusion: consolidation paid off here, mostly for the weak markets. Strong markets barely moved.