The FTD-to-NGR lag means month-1 ROI is structurally misleading

The FTD-to-NGR lag means month-1 ROI is structurally misleading

There's a timing mismatch most affiliates never model: your cost (traffic spend) lands in week 1, but a meaningful slice of a player's NGR arrives in months 2-4. Judging a campaign on month-1 return reads the curve at its worst point.

Typical NGR realization schedule across tracked RevShare cohorts, as % of 12-month total:
— Month 1: ~22%
— Months 2-3: ~31%
— Months 4-6: ~27%
— Months 7-12: ~20%

So at the 30-day mark you've seen barely a fifth of a player's value, while you've paid 100% of acquisition cost. A campaign showing -40% ROI at day 30 can land at +25% by month 4 with zero additional spend.

The discipline:
— Set your kill decision on cohort projection, not realized month-1 return.
— Build a maturation curve from your own settled cohorts and apply it to live ones.
— Only verticals with reliable maturation (casino, mixed) earn this patience; high-decay sports traffic doesn't.

Benchmark of the day: ~78% of a RevShare player's value lands after month 1 — never kill a cohort on its 30-day number alone.