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Conversion Lab Notes
Conversion Lab Notes
@ConversionLabNotes

Myth: a big observed uplift means a reliable result. False — large effects on small samples are the least trus

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Myth: a big observed uplift means a reliable result. False — large effects on small samples are the least trustworthy.
Low-powered tests only reach significance via inflated estimates — the 'winner's curse.' A true 3% lift can surface as a 'significant' 15% on n=400.
Expect regression: re-measure winners. Median shrinkage on replication runs 30–50% in mature CRO programs.
Read the number, not the story. [winner's curse · power=0.3]
This post was published in the Telegram channel Conversion Lab Notes. Subscribe here: @ConversionLabNotes.

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