<b>Why 'I made $X selling a course' is the least verifiable claim in the niche</b>

<b>Why 'I made $X selling a course' is the least verifiable claim in the niche</b>

Thesis: digital-product revenue claims are structurally the hardest to audit, because the seller controls every number and the strongest incentive is to inflate them.

Context. Course, template, and membership income is reported by the seller alone — there's no ad platform or affiliate network as an independent witness. The same person often sells a product about how to make money selling products, compounding the incentive.

Findings. Where independent data exists (payment-processor leaks, refund-rate disclosures, platform aggregate reports), realized course revenue tends to cluster well below the loudest public claims, with high refund rates on some launches and steep drop-off after an initial launch spike. 'Launch revenue' is frequently presented as if it were recurring.

Caveats. Independent data points here are sparse, sometimes dated, and not representative — they document the cases that leaked, not the norm. Gross launch figures also legitimately exist; the issue is generalizing them.

Implications. Discount self-reported product revenue heavily, separate one-time launch spikes from steady-state, and weight refund and churn rates as much as the headline.

What we still don't know: representative net, post-refund product revenue, because the only witness is the party with the incentive to round up.