<b>The spike that wasn't a spike</b>

<b>The spike that wasn't a spike</b>

It was December, and a mid-size outdoor-gear brand's mentions jumped 60%. The team nearly launched a campaign to ride the momentum, convinced something was catching fire.

One analyst overlaid the prior three Decembers before anyone spent a dollar. The 60% lift was almost exactly the seasonal norm — gift-buying chatter that happened every year. The "trend" was a calendar, not a movement.

What the seasonal baseline did reveal was the real story underneath: one product line was running 25% above its own December norm, while another lagged. That deviation from baseline — not the raw spike — was the actual signal. They shifted ad budget toward the over-indexing line and beat their holiday target by 18%.

The takeaway: a raw spike means nothing without its seasonal shadow. The signal isn't the increase — it's the gap between this year and the years before. Always read mentions against their own history.