Conversion Lab Notes
Conversion Lab Notes
@ConversionLabNotes

"+5% lift" with a 95% CI of [−2%, +12%] is a coin flip dressed as a win.

"+5% lift" with a 95% CI of [−2%, +12%] is a coin flip dressed as a win.
The mistake: reporting the point estimate and hiding the interval. A CI straddling zero means you cannot rule out a loss.
— Decks show the 5%; the bracket that contains zero gets cropped.
— Fix: lead with the interval, not the point. Decide on the lower bound: would you still ship if true lift were −2%?
Read the number, not the story. [+5% · CI [−2%, +12%]]
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