Tier-1 pays ~5-8x the CPA of Tier-3 — but Tier-3 converts at ~4-6x the rate. Run the product, not the headline

Tier-1 pays ~5-8x the CPA of Tier-3 — but Tier-3 converts at ~4-6x the rate. Run the product, not the headline.

GEO selection gets argued on payout size alone, which is the wrong axis. What matters is CPA times conversion rate times retention — and the three move against each other.

Across tracked betting deals:
— Tier-1 (US-state/UK/AU/DE): CPA $150-400, but click-to-FTD conversion often 0.5-1.5% on cold traffic, and acquisition costs are brutal.
— Tier-3 (LatAm/SEA/Africa): CPA $25-50, but conversion 3-8% and far cheaper clicks.

The product that decides it:
— Tier-1: $250 CPA × 1% conversion = $2.50 revenue per click. Needs cheap, qualified clicks to clear.
— Tier-3: $35 CPA × 5% conversion = $1.75 revenue per click — at click costs often a fraction of Tier-1's.

So Tier-3 frequently wins on margin per click despite the smaller headline payout, because conversion and click cost both swing in its favor. Where Tier-1 wins back: RevShare LTV, since regulated Tier-1 players deposit larger and longer.

Benchmark of the day: compare revenue-per-click (CPA × conversion) against click cost — Tier-3's ~5% conversion often beats Tier-1's $300 CPA on CPA traffic, while Tier-1 wins on RevShare LTV.