<b>The CPA-RevShare crossover sits at month 4.2, not "it depends"</b>

<b>The CPA-RevShare crossover sits at month 4.2, not "it depends"</b>
Across ~40 tracked Tier-1 sportsbook deals, the median crossover point — where cumulative RevShare earnings overtake a one-time CPA — lands at month 4.2.

The math: CPA $180 flat. RevShare at 35% of NGR (net gaming revenue = stakes minus payouts minus bonus cost), on a player generating ~$38 NGR/month, pays ~$13.30/month. $180 ÷ $13.30 = 13.5 months to nominal parity — but apply a 9%/month churn cohort and the discounted streams cross at month 4.2 in present-value terms because early months carry the surviving population.

The trap: operators quote the 13.5-month figure to push you toward CPA. The PV figure is the one that matters if you can hold traffic quality.

— Below ~$30 NGR/month, CPA wins outright; the stream never catches up before churn kills it.
— Above ~$50 NGR/month, RevShare wins by month 3.

Benchmark of the day: crossover ≈ CPA ÷ (monthly NGR × rev-share rate × survival factor) — solve for your own cohort before signing.