Mistake: counting commission at the gross rate

Mistake: counting commission at the gross rate
Everyone says a 30% recurring deal pays 30%. It pays 30% on the subscriptions that survive the clawback window and don't refund. Those are different numbers.

Why your dashboard lies to you:
— The program reports approved commission, then quietly reverses 25-40% over the next 60-90 days as those accounts cancel or chargeback.
— You spend against the gross figure, then your real margin shows up a quarter late.

Fix: track net-of-reversal commission per cohort, not lifetime totals. Pull last quarter's approved vs. finally-paid, get your true reversal rate, and discount every new estimate by it. If a program won't show you reversal data, assume the worst quartile: 35%.

Verdict: gross commission is a marketing number. Net is the only one that pays rent.